Sep 30th: Plenty of volume in the markets, but little net chage in movement. Such action is typical of churning and with markets below resistance as defined by early- to mid-September congestion it is not a bullish sign. The S&P and Dow were spanked by Merck news. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were immune to the damage, but didn't inspire strong trading as the Sox ended the day on a bearish inverse hammer. The secondary indicators [$BPCOMPQ $NASI, and $NAA50] do give some hope to the bulls in that they were quick to turn back up - but we might see some whipsaw action as secondary indicator technical's remain on "sell' signals (MACD trigger line in particular). Sidelines still looks to be the best place to be - we are close enough to a breakout that there isn't much net movement to miss, but psychologically, market breakout's look an ocean distance away. Small caps are closest to breaking the psychological resistance barrier - the Russell 2000 ended the day at 572, some 5 points away from the "election rally" barrier. However, bulls will like the action in the mining sector - plenty of upward movement here.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 29th: Improved GDP and slightly lower oil prices kept markets in advance mode, although they remain below supply levels from early September. Strength was largely focused on the tech markets, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 closing up on strong volume. The former sits at the low end of September congestion following two days of accumulation. Another day like today would consume much of this supply and leave the skies clear for a run to 2,000. The NASDAQ 100 was similarly impressive, even if today's volume was a little shy relative to NASDAQ volume. The Sox didn't quite match the tech indices in its vigor, but it looks to have stabilised its five day decline. The Dow and S&P still have some catchup to do. Small caps outperformed the two Goliath indices - watch for a very bullish "three white solider" sequence here.

It was a good day for breakout stocks; AM reversed some prior weak trading, breaking near term resistance on heavier volume following news of profitability and a dividend announcement. ASE benefited from news it was to transfer from the AMEX to the NASDAQ. ATPG has enjoyed some heavy accumulation days on oils advance. CAND fast approaches its stated price objective, the current rally looks heavily overbought, so partial profits would be prudent here. CSTR closed at new highs on increasing volume. COO featured on Yahoo's In Play as it rallied on higher volume. SBAC closed decisively higher after a couple of weeks of sideways trading. SIRI closed up 14% on massive volume following an upgrade.

Not all was good. VISG lost 12% on a rival contract award. While last week's gains in penny stock TFCT were completely erased despite a string of PR releases from the company.

Breakout failures: FMDAY featured on September 21st clipped its stop intraday, but finished on a bullish hammer.

Breakout targets met: CCJ featured on August 3rd reached target for a 28% gain.

Sep 27th: Oil prices bumped near $50 which kept a tight leash on the markets as a whole. Although markets ended lower, light volume was a bonus for the bulls. Speculators may have pushed oil to far, to fast. Today's "shooting star" in the chart for oil, at resistance, marks a possible short term top and potentially a double top with respect to the intermediate trend. Tomorrow will reveal all given the proximity to resistance - a close over $50 would negate the shooting star, anything else would suggest a larger pullback to come. The Dow is the first index to reverse all three technicals from green to red and remains the weakest of the indices. However, it does now lie on support of the former broadening wedge. Should oil prices fall tomorrow then we should see some support build here. As the first index to lead the breakdown, it should also be the first to mark a bottom. Although the Sox ended lower, there is a strong bullish divergence developing in its MACD. In addition, the ADX line (a measure of trend strength) has continued to decline, as the -DI line (bearish strength) has moved above the +DI line (bullish strength) - we look to be forming a strong intermediate bottom which should be good for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and related stocks. Secondary indicators [$BPCOMPQ $NASI, and $NAA50] have topped and are on "Sell" signals, confirming short term weakness. The question here is how far will they pull back? Longs should be moving to the sidelines, perhaps nibbling on Dow stocks which will start to show value.

Breakout failures: CX featured on Sep 14th.

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 24th: Update to follow.

Sep 23rd: Lower volume trading helped stem the flow of yesterday's losses, although the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] were the only markets to finish the day in positive territory. The Sox ended the strongest of the indices as it held support of its breakout. Secondary indicators are in the process of reversing [$BPCOMPQ and $NASI] or have reversed [$NAA50]. When this happens we usually see some scrappy trading as markets take a rest. Today was a bit of a non-event with regard to news as oil held the headlines. The real movers and shakers were in the precious metal sector. The Dow will likely make its first attempt at support as it approaches the former resistance line (now support) of the broadening wedge. The S&P remains in no-mans territory, neither close to support or resistance.

Breakout failures: NAVR had a very short time as a breakout, the last three days look to have reversed a breakout into a bull trap on heavier volume - time to sell if haven't done so alreay. The stock featured on Sep 22nd.

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 22nd: If yesterday was a day for the bulls, today was very much a day for the bears. The most worrying aspect was the manner in which the last two weeks of tight trading was cut to the downside. The higher volume made it an official distribution day. Supply concerns marked by higher oil prices was the excuse du jour, although all markets had shown evidence of a weakening uptrend for a number of weeks, today was the moment that weakness came to fruition. Unfortunately, the rally in oil prices looks very healthy from a technical perspective and a base breakout target of $57 a barrel should we see a close over $50 looks a likely target. Given that, the best the bulls can hope for is some scrappy sideways action as traders wait for the rise in oil to complete and become priced into the market. The Sox was the only index to hang on to its most recent breakout, but given the reversals in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, I can't see them holding out for long. The Dow once again lead the markets downward, breaking support of a bullish wedge as it had done in April - short play Dow components for the next couple of weeks looks best. The S&P suffered too, but not the extent that the Dow did.

The one bright spot were the silver stocks; SIL, PAAS and SSRI. PAAS brokeout yesterday on heavier volume. SIL and SSRI did so today. Interestingly, gold stocks remained range bound. Although a bad day for the market, stocks on my public stockchart list had an okay day. Those that suffered included BGC, which broke support of a rising trendling. LEXR ended weakly (a higher open, but a lower close) on heavy volume. Similarly, SNIC gapped up, but closed lower, also on heavy volume. SUNW bucked the bearish cloud and broke out on heavy volume, note the new 6-month highs in the MACD trigger line - a bullish sign.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 21st: The fed decision casted a bullish tone on the market, although trading volume remained light. We need to see some volume follow through to confirm a bullish stance. While prices meander around a tight range it is best to stay on the sidelines until a direction resolves. The tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, have the most room to run to resistance and as long as the Sox can maintain a rally to upper channel resistance, tech stochs should be the short term plays of the week. The longer term picutre still shows bullish consolidations in the Dow and S&P. The latter shows very strong on-balance volume (marking accumulation). How the week finishes will be key as the weeks passsing have marked declining strength in the rally - today was a good start to marking a stronger finish.

There was plenty of action from stocks featured as breakouts on this site. I have mentioned two on my breakout page. I am little stuck for time, but if you check out page 3 and 4 of my Stockchart public list you will find some decent bullish action. Even, precious metal stocks joined in the fun.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: MSO featured on July 19th reached and surpassed its target for a 19.73% gain. RRGB featured on Aug 19th rallied strongly to exceed its price target for a 14.45% gain. UIC featured on Aug 11th reached its target for a 22.42% gain

Sep 20th: Markets traded lightly into tomorrow's Fed meeting. The real mover today was the Philly Sox which negated a recent bull trap. Unfortunately, the gains in the Sox were not reflected in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Are traders waiting for tomorrow's Greenspan comments before acting? Short term downside remains favored as we continue to monitor for a break of the 9-month consolidation. Some argue we have done so already. Its all a matter of where you draw the line. Compare Peter Robinson's daily and weekly S&P charts on the first page; daily remains below resistance; but weekly chart shows an upside break on higher volume. This week could decide which chart is correct. I don't see enough in the daily or weekly picture to suggest we are out of the woods yet - but to give bulls some heart, the markets don't have far to go to hit the rarified air above. The Dow ended weakest on the day, closing down 79 points. The angle of descent remains within the parameters of a bullish decline. On-balance volume is in favor of the bulls although the MACD trigger line has generated a sell signal at resistance. The net result of this is to watch for further low volume downside.

Individual stocks making moves included: CDE, broke near term support following a bearish "three black crow" sequence (three days of lower opens and lower closes). Look for move to test $3.00 support. The MACD of PAAS broke down, but prices remain within a consolidation triangle, an early warning system of what will follow? CCMP continued to advance towards its next level of resistance on higher volume. Similarly, CETV and OVTI continue to benefit from a sequence of buying spikes. COO closed at new 52-week highs, although the declining volume at each new high is a concern. ATEA ended the day on some bearish cloud cover, look for a test of prior resistance, now support at $6.40. IVAN continued its strong form adding 17.55% on heavy volume. MTZ flashed a second day of modest buying. technicals have begun to swing back in favor of the bulls. In contrast, ZEUS is heading the other way. WLSF is featured as a breakout once again.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: EGY featured on Sep 7th reached its target on Friday for a 30% gain. The stock finished up today, but the black candlestick at this stage of the rally is bearish.

Sep 19th: Quad witching on Friday brought in higher volume trading, but markets ended the week flat. Note on the above weekly charts above how the size of the real bodies (the distance between the open and closing price for the week) have declined as the markets rallied from August lows, this is a bearish warning flag. The two leading indices, the Dow and S&P (the former in particular) continue to struggle at resistance. The S&P is mapping a "trade box" (see grey box on chart), similiar to the situation which occurred in August at support. An upside break would end the 9-month consolidation, a downside break would maintain the declining channel and favor a test of support, and potentially new 52-week lows. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] still have some distance to go to reach the comparative levels of the Dow and S&P. However, these indices are dealing with supply issues at the former triple bottom support (now resistance). The main concern with the markets at this juncture is the expectation of an election rally, and when the majority expect, the wise should look for the opposite. Given the speed at which secondary indicators [$BPCOMPQ, $NAA50 and $NASI] reached oversold levels, the current countertrend bounce should still have some legs to run upside (favoring higher market prices). But last year's rallies introduced new extremes in these indicators (eg, when the $BPCOMPQ smashed past 60), so should one be wary of the alternatives and the possibility of new lows in them too. The secondary indicator spoiling the party is the volatility index, a rise in this indicates a rise in fear and the potential for lower prices. The faster the rate of ascent, the faster the potential decline in the markets. At the moment, this indicator is running at deeply oversold levels and looks to be itching for a bounce.

Breakout failures: DNYY featured on Aug 30th clipped its stop but ended the day stronger on increased volume. CYTR featured on Sep 15th hits its stop on increasing weakness, further downside looks probable here. NARA featured on July 14th hits its original stop after a price collapse. TKLC featured on July 26th hit its stop on a early morning sell off.

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 16th: Oil prices nudged their way back into investors consciousness, early morning gains were sold off in late afternoon action as markets closed near their lows. On a positive side, volume remained light - if markets can maintain this form over the coming days it will only take one strong day to push the markets beyond overhead resistance. Tomorrow is traditionally a volatile day (quad witching) so volume will likely be heavier than normal. While trading at, or below, resistance it is best to be taking profits and moving cash to the sidelines in preperation of a pullback, or a solid move beyond resistance. It is never too late to take profits. I recommend Ted Burge's public stockchart list for support/resistance education.

As for individual markets. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are mapping decent bullish consolidations on declining volume. Yesterday's reversal in the Sox steadied as its MACD continued to inch up - a bullish indicator. The Dow remains the index to watch as it looks the most vulnerable to selling. The S&P is hanging on off the back of some decent accumulation - although the run up in the SPY has come off some very light volume, this divergence is not good - the question is which form is dominant, the bullish rally in the S&P or the bearish rally in the SPY? It should be noted that lighter volume in the SPY has favored accumulation (as marked by the green arrows) over distribution. Meanwhile the Russell 2000 completed a solid day, closing at new near term highs. Small caps traditionally lead new rallies, and this index has not disappointed of late.

Individual stocks had a quiet day. BGO ended on a heavier volume (bullish) doji, although gold prices look like they have some more downside in the tank as technicals sit in no-mans land. ASE lept up on a new government contract exceeding the price target I set for the stock in June. CAND continued its run of good fortune, but looks overbought in the short term. SBAC enjoyed some of the heaviest volume trading in six months, but only managed a meagre 3% gain on the day - watch this one for churning. ELGX broke to new highs and is a featured breakout for tomorrow. IDEV added another solid 5% on increased volume, its RHS base is developing nicely. OVTI consolidated nicely at support on higher volume. On the downside, JDSU has marked a fourth day of supply and $3.40 support looks vulnerable, while NT crashed through horizontal support on slowed revenue growth. Weakness was also apparent in penny stock, MOBL as it closed below triangle support.

Breakout failures: BG featured on July 30th hit its stop, this was a gold member short play on September 13th. MECA featured on July 14th.

Breakout targets met: ASE featured on June 3rd exceeded its price target for a 40% gain.

Sep 15th: Markets started to pullback after 4 weeks of gains. Weak earnings from Coca Cola, and a poor industrial production figure was the excuse used for the sell off, although profit taking on valuation concerns would be a more logical explanation. Distribution (institutional selling) hit all markets, another sign we have hit an intermediate term (3 weeks-3 months) top. The Dow looking weakest, and the most vulnerable to further selling pressure. Yesterday's breakout in the S&P was negated leaving behind a bull trap, and the Sox returned to its downward ways, knocking the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 with it. Interestingly, the secondary tech indices ($BPCOMPQ, $NAA50 and $NASI) closed up - and continue to look strong. We shouldn't see more than a dip in these indicators if what we are seeing now is a bullish pullback (and not a continuation of the Jan-Sep downtrend).

Although the markets limped along, individual stocks performed well. Continuation moves in ATPG, CAND, IBAS, TASR, MAGS, IPIX, and IVAN, all came on higher volume. GRA sold off on heavier volume and its lengthy run looks set to consolidate. AMED lept up on strength in its sector, although it has yet to reveal the price of its offering (due out this week). IDEV is developing a strong RHS base, closing up on higher volume. Weakness was mostly confined to the most active stocks, like CSCO and LU.

Breakout failures: IOTN featured on Aug 27th and Sep 9th clipped the higher of its two stops, although the current decline looks like a bullish handle and not a bearish breakdown.

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 14th: The markets inched up on light trading with the tech indices (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) again the best performers. Positive afterhours earnings from Oracle will likely produce a gap open tomorrow, but without buying conviction we could see some net flat trading, leaving potential (bearish) shooting stars (ie. a gap up, but a close similar to the open price). Although the Sox completed a bullish 'three white soldier' combination yesterday, today's doji marks a return of indecision. Again, Oracle figures should benefit it, but a pullback in this index should be watched for bottoming action (short and sharp), or bearish action (slow and steady down, then a gap) The Dow remained unchanged, although the S&P did manage to close above resistance on light volume..

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 13th: The tech indices continued their good form, driven by strength in the Sox. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 logged a second accumulation day since the last distribution day on Wednesday. Buying into Oracle's after hours report on Tuesday looks a little rash, but software makers had a strong day. Although the tech indices had a decent day, the S&P and Dow were marked by further indecision. Distribiution remained the controlling influence in the Dow, while strong accumulation in the S&P has been weakened by some limp trading below resistance. At least in the short term (next few days to weeks), buying tech stocks looks the best play until these stocks (and their indices) 'catch up' with the broader markets. Moving to the sidelines is best for cautious investors as resistance remains a concern in non-tech indices. Tomorrow's CPI and retail sales reading, this Friday's quad witching, and next Tuesday's Fed meeting will keep the fires stoked - the question is how the markets will react to these key influences. A brief correction back to August lows looks favored - but the recent rally has seen some decent upside volume, including positive on-balance-volume data in the S&P and NASDAQ 100 - and should resistance be broken, then August lows will become a distant memory.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: AVN featured on August 25th met target for a 40.63% return.

Sep 11th: A mix of lower oil prices and lower wholesale prices pushed markets upwards. Volume came in lighter than Thursday's session in all markets, but gains in the beaten Sox helped negate bull traps in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. However, the tech indices are laggards and have plenty of room to catch up with the S&P and Dow. Indeed, the latter markets underperfomed - the Dow remained stuck below resistance, ending the day on a bullish hammer on lighter volume. Its bull trap remains in effect having retraced the entire bullish wedge - it remains vulnerable to further selling pressure having logged 3 distribution days over the week. The S&P touched resistance of its bullish wedge retracement, logging only 1 distribution day but 2 accumulation days over the week. Secondary indicators ($BPCOMPQ, $NAA50 and $NASI) are positive, but I would look to the Dow to lead a retracement in all markets which will confirm August lows as a key bottom.

I have chopped and changed the public list a little. I have added an extra ten running breakouts, cutting down on the member requests. Gold members can email me if there is a particular stock they would like on the list, I will do my best to cater to requests - but space is limited. If there is need for an opinion on a particular stock please post it to the message board.

Stocks looking as attractive buys are AM - earnings CC on Sep 29, CCMP, HXL, ISG (featured below), FIX, INTC - lowers outlook - technical play, SUNW, QQQ, ATEA - gold member play from Thursday. Penny stocks: QMCI product launch on BlackBerry, and TFCT receives $1m for growth and promotion.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 8th: Markets chalked up a second distribution day over the last three trading days. Now is as good time to take profits given the proximity of markets to resistance as marked by the July breakdowns (in the S&P and Dow, and to a lesser extent, the Russell 2000). The tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, remain suppressed by the Sox and are still a long way from July highs. Note on the weekly NASDAQ candlestick chart above how the 20-week and 50-week EMA's are about to crossover, and we have two dojis (although this week has yet to finish so this could still change, Friday's price is very important as that is the price traders are prepared to hold over the weekend) at the highs of the big red candlestick from the end of July, suggesting supply is pressing down on the nascent rally and is likely to push the market back to its August lows. The advantage of taking profits now is a solid volume move above July highs is all that it will take to go long on the market - and these levels are not too far away on a point scale in the S&P and Dow (even if they are far off on a psychological level), so there is little loss of 'actual gain' by moving to the sidelines at this time. Don't let profits slip. Oil prices were not the influence they were yesterday, as they too closed lower. When good news no longer fuels a rally you have an important red flag. Even the volatility index closed lower - fear dropped as volume selling increased! Markets do not tolerate complacency.

We are now in the ninth month of a large trading range - this is neither bullish nor bearish until a decisive move is made one way or the other. Personally, I think the markets will venture above January highs - but the selling in August broke important support levels with relative ease which now has me thinking a big drop may occur before we see new highs (possible testing November 2002 highs), and you don't want to be holding for an election rally if this comes to fruition. This is a tough market - bear and bull markets are easy as the trend is clear, but what we have now is a very sensitive market that is on the verge of a substantial move, and it is giving very little away as to what it will do. Low volume in this regard is not bullish, as many are suggesting (at least from what I am reading). I wish I knew what was to come - unfortunately, I don't!

Breakout failures: ESWW featured on Aug 26th. HDWR featured on Aug 24th and 31st.

Breakout targets met: MDPA featured on Aug 11th and 12th.

Sep 7th: Markets treaded water mostly. The general bullish trading led by the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P, but was tempered by weakness in the Philly Sox (consequently reflected in a net neutral day for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100). Oil prices were the motivator for today's gains, easing $0.66 cents, but sitting on 50-day moving average support. The volatility index continued to congest just above support, forming a potential double bottom - a rise in fear looks imminent so watch for complacency. Sept 11th anniversary lies just around the corner and options expiration next week will lead to some volatile trading. The S&P and NASDAQ indices accrued a net accumulation day, although the NASDAQ had a weaker trading day. Precious metal stocks have started an intermediate term decline as the underlying base metal flits downwards. Take profits and look to buy these stocks back on a test of August or May lows. The DIA did reach its price target set from Aug 25th and currently sits at resistance. The SPY successfully closed the breakdown gap.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Sep 3rd: The market held up relatively well given the buy-the-rumor (on jobs) yesterday and the sell-the-news this morning. The jobs report was not much to right home about, compounded with a poor INTC report, left little chance for a higher close. Each market has run into their first real test, and it remains debatable whether they can pass it. First off, markets are trading close to important moving average resistance. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 with their 50-day MA, and the Dow with its 200-day MA. Although the S&P and Russell 2000 are above all key moving average support (but below prior June congestion resistance). Secondly, today was, with the exception of the S&P, the first distribution day. I have marked on the charts with dark green arrows the number of accumulation days since each of the market's rallies began - it should be noted all 'accumulation' days were on below average volume. The S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow each have 4 accumulation days, the NASDAQ 100 only 2. The latter remains the most susceptible to further selling. Thirdly, the Philly Sox crashed to a new 52-week low. Barring a sudden reversal on Monday it would appear the tech indices (at the very least) are destined to test July lows. Finally, the tech indices ended the week on bull traps, with bearish haramis (at overbought technical levels) on the remaining markets. Each of the four factors are bearish and are likely to stew over the weekend leaving markets vulnerable to further bad news (excessive Hurricane damage, further terrorist attacks, oil disruption etc). I still believe we are set to rally to new highs, but I am of the opinion a decent retest of August lows is needed to confirm a bottom.

Sep 2nd: Expectations for a strong jobs report and weaker oil prices pushed markets to new near term highs. After hours disappointment from INTC will likely dampen some of the enthusiasm, but the jobs reports is really all that matters here. Volume remained light, the real volume will come tomorrow and finally we will know if this is the start of the election rally, or a continuation of an intermediate bear decline. The NASDAQ closed over the key 1,865 resistance level, if we see a close under this level tomorrow (particularly on heavy volume) then we will have a very potent bull trap and further declines can be expected. The NASDAQ 100 negated a prior bull trap - also closing at new near term highs. The Dow closed very strong on higher (but below average) volume, ending the day just shy of June price congestion. The S&P had a similar strong end-of-day, although volume in this index was slightly below the last couple of days. Unfortunately, the potential fly in the ointment remains the Philly Sox index, and tonight's INTC announcement won't help it. I would remain very cautious buying tech stocks without a stronger rally in this critical index. The volatility index is close to prior oversold levels, so any downside from here will likely set up a rout which may be the time to buy (depending on how the Sox reacts to the sell off).

Precious metal stocks remain in a state of limbo, but in the short term, downside is favored. Overall, stocks on my public stockchart list rose, but volume lacked conviction. Some of the better performing stocks include; AM, which reached new highs in the absence of stock related news. ASE gapped up on a new order. CMN broke past resistance on higher volume, but reversed the following day leaving a potential bull trap. ISG made a nice move to break above near term resistance having previously dipped below trianlge support. TDS broke to new highs yesterday, continuing a breakout started in July. QCOM closed at new highs on lower volume - prior weakness has been negated, but the lack of volume remains a concern. CBTE counterbroke resistance on rising technicals. Volume was above the recent average, but well below what has gone before. IPIX remains in a base, although earlier news of a new Russian order helped inject some upside volume. LMMG lost lower support after a recent roller coaster ride of price action. ZEUS has almost confirmed a double top - it currently sits at support. OPSW broke near term resistance and looks good for a run to $8-9. TASR's rally was likely driven by shorts (covering) who anticipated a break of the large descending triangle, there was no company specific news related to today's news. The descending triangle remains in effect. XMSR continued its upside triangle break as it works its way to its old 52-week high. Penny stock, NMKT, is developing a small bullish triangle. A similar pattern is developing in MOBL, but the latter is closer to resistance. Fellow penny stock, ONEV, consolidates after it announced a product launch.

Stockchart public list - please remember to vote!

Back to top