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Breakouts
for Oct 10th: A very tentative list of three
breakouts. The last pick is the most dubious given the large
% risk involved and would be best viewed as a watch play.
The first pick, MTN, last featured
as a breakout for May
6th. The stock had until recently kept a relatively tight
profile until September's double lows. The company had reported
a
quarterly
loss last
Wednesday but this failed to dampen the spirits of bulls who
were struggling to find quality moves in the face of widespread
selling. Resistance breaks in the MACD trigger line and on-balance-volume
supported Friday's price breakout. The point-n-figure chart
highlights the vulnerabilities of this play with no major
pullback since its double top breakout from October 26th 2004.
Given the latter price objective of $31.00 I have opted for
a measured move price target. The second pick, ACN,
enjoyed a heavy volume gap breakout on better than expected earnings.
The 6-month daily chart hides a broad sideways pattern visible
on the weekly chart with resistance at $28.00. The point-n-figure
chart shows no price pattern but holds a (bearish) price objective
of $18.00. A move to $28.00 (although resistance on the weekly
chart) would be good enough for a breakout on the point-n-figure
chart. A breakout of resistance in on-balance-volume and an
'almost' breakout of similar resistance in the MACD gives
the bulls cause for optimism. Slow stochastics are only barely
bullish. The third pick, BRLC,
is the most vulnerable of the three picks and real attention should be paid to
support at $3.61. Technically the stock is not in bad shape
with new highs in on-balance-volume and new near term highs
in the MACD trigger line. Slow stochastics are in good shape
although these have retreated from their highs. There was
an after hours fill on Friday for $3.55 but I couldn't see
any news which could account for this and it was only a 400
share lot. For my review purposes I am using Friday's closing
price as a a mark but GTC buy orders down to $3.61 would still
leave a 16% risk - so an
alternative
stop
at $3.34
would
leave
one
more vulnerable to whipsaw but would provide a better risk
outlay than the one I will be using. Friday's breakout seems
to have come in the absence of company specific news.
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